4.8 Further reading

Many forecasting textbooks ignore judgmental forecasting altogether. Here are three which do cover it in some detail.

  • Chapter 11 of Ord, Fildes, and Kourentzes (2017) provides an excellent review of some of the same topics as this chapter, but also includes using judgment to assessing forecast uncertainty, and forecasting using prediction markets.
  • Goodwin and Wright (2009) is a book-length treatment of the use of judgement in decision marking by two of the leading researchers in the field.
  • Kahn (2006) covers techniques for new product forecasting, where judgmental methods play an important role.

There have been some helpful survey papers on judgemental forecasting published in the last 20 years. We have found these three particularly helpful.

Some helpful papers on individual judgmental forecasting methods are listed in the table below.

Forecasting Method Recommended papers
Delphi Rowe and Wright (1999)
Rowe (2007)
Adjustments Sanders et al. (2005)
Eroglu and Croxton (2010)
Franses and Legerstee (2013)
Analogy Green and Armstrong (2007)
Scenarios Önkal, Sayim, and Gönül (2012)
Customer intentions Morwitz, Steckel, and Gupta (2007)

Bibliography

Ord, J Keith, Robert Fildes, and Nikolaos Kourentzes. 2017. Principles of Business Forecasting. 2nd ed. Wessex Press Publishing Co.

Goodwin, Paul, and George Wright. 2009. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. 4th ed. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.

Kahn, Kenneth B. 2006. New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach. M.E. Sharp.

Fildes, Robert, and Paul Goodwin. 2007b. “Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, no. 8: 5–10.

Fildes, Robert, and Paul Goodwin. 2007a. “Against Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting.” Interfaces 37 (6): 570–76.

Harvey, Nigel. 2001. “Improving Judgment in Forecasting.” In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, edited by J Scott Armstrong, 59–80. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Rowe, Gene, and George Wright. 1999. “The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis.” International Journal of Forecasting 15: 353–75.

Rowe, Gene. 2007. “A Guide to Delphi.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, no. 8: 11–16.

Sanders, Nada, Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, Mustafa Sinan Gönül, Nigel Harvey, Anthony Lee, and Lucy Kjolso. 2005. “When and How Should Statistical Forecasts Be Judgmentally Adjusted?” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 1 (1): 5–23.

Eroglu, Cuneyt, and Keely L Croxton. 2010. “Biases in Judgmental Adjustments of Statistical Forecasts: The Role of Individual Differences.” International Journal of Forecasting 26 (1): 116–33.

Franses, Philip Hans, and Rianne Legerstee. 2013. “Do Statistical Forecasting Models for SKU-Level Data Benefit from Including Past Expert Knowledge?” International Journal of Forecasting 29 (1): 80–87.

Green, Kesten C., and J Scott Armstrong. 2007. “Structured Analogies for Forecasting.” International Journal of Forecasting 23 (3): 365–76.

Önkal, Dilek, Kadire Zeynep Sayim, and Mustafa Sinan Gönül. 2012. “Scenarios as Channels of Forecast Advice.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80: 772–88.

Morwitz, Vicki G., Joel H. Steckel, and Alok Gupta. 2007. “When Do Purchase Intentions Predict Sales?” International Journal of Forecasting 23 (3): 347–64.