4.8 Further reading

Books

  • Ord and Fildes (2012)
  • Goodwin and Wright (2009)
  • Kahn (2006)

General papers

Delphi

Adjustments

  • Sanders et al. (2005)
  • Eroglu and Croxton (2010)
  • Franses and Legerstee (2013)
  • Goodwin (2000)

Analogy

  • Green and Armstrong (2007)

Scenarios

  • Önkal, Sayim, and Gönül (2012)

Customer intentions

  • Morwitz, Steckel, and Gupta (2007)

References

Ord, J Keith, and Robert Fildes. 2012. Principles of Business Forecasting. South-Western College Pub.

Goodwin, Paul, and George Wright. 2009. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. 4th ed. Chichester: Wiley.

Kahn, Kenneth B. 2006. New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach. M.E. Sharp.

Fildes, Robert, and Paul Goodwin. 2007b. “Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, no. 8: 5–10.

Fildes, Robert, and Paul Goodwin. 2007a. “Against Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting.” Interfaces 37 (6): 570–76.

Harvey, Nigel. 2001. “Improving Judgment in Forecasting.” In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, edited by J Scott Armstrong, 59–80. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Rowe, Gene, and George Wright. 1999. “The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis.” International Journal of Forecasting 15: 353–75.

Rowe, Gene. 2007. “A Guide to Delphi.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, no. 8: 11–16.

Sanders, Nada, Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal, Mustafa Sinan Gönül, Nigel Harvey, Anthony Lee, and Lucy Kjolso. 2005. “When and How Should Statistical Forecasts Be Judgmentally Adjusted?” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 1 (1): 5–23.

Eroglu, Cuneyt, and Keely L. Croxton. 2010. “Biases in Judgmental Adjustments of Statistical Forecasts: The Role of Individual Differences.” International Journal of Forecasting 26 (1): 116–33.

Franses, Philip Hans, and Rianne Legerstee. 2013. “Do Statistical Forecasting Models for Sku-Level Data Benefit from Including Past Expert Knowledge?” International Journal of Forecasting 29 (1): 80–87.

Goodwin, Paul. 2000. “Correct or Combine? Mechanically Integrating Judgmental Forecasts with Statistical Methods.” International Journal of Forecasting 16 (2): 261–75.

Green, Kesten C., and J Scott Armstrong. 2007. “Structured Analogies for Forecasting.” International Journal of Forecasting 23 (3): 365–76.

Önkal, Dilek, Kadire Zeynep Sayim, and Mustafa Sinan Gönül. 2012. “Scenarios as Channels of Forecast Advice.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80: 772–88.

Morwitz, Vicki G., Joel H. Steckel, and Alok Gupta. 2007. “When Do Purchase Intentions Predict Sales?” International Journal of Forecasting 23 (3): 347–64.